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Post-Abe Era: Review and Outlook

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe resigned because of illness. This has caused international concern. What will the legacy of this strong leader be? The new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga is of humble birth, and his political ability is not very obvious, although he is the longest-serving chief cabinet secretary. This workshop focuses on major topics such as the extent the new government will inherit the policies of the Abe regime, and what foreign policies toward China Japan will adopt at a very delicate moment in Sino-Japanese relations.


Participants believe that the strong leadership system formed during Abe's administration may not be suitable for his successor. Therefore, in the post-Abe era, the Liberal Democratic Party's faction politics will be resurrected again. The political instability caused by inner-party chaos can easily create opportunities for the parties out of power. Japanese politics may return to the "Sengoku period." In addition, Japanese society is experiencing several notable changes. The prevailing opinion of over 100 million Japanese that they belong to the middle class is shifting into an awareness of serious class gaps. Japan is shifting from a consumer society to a low desire society. Its once-close societal bonds are shifting into social isolation. Once confident, Japan is turning into a society facing many risks.


Participants discussed the new Japanese government's future policy orientation. They offered the following thoughts. In terms of foreign economic policy, the Suga regime will continue Abe's "China+1" approach of desinicization while promoting East Asia regional cooperation through the China-Japan-Korea FTA and RCEP. In diplomacy, the Suga regime will adhere to Abe's strategic diplomatic philosophy with its own characteristics. Japan will be extremely cautious in its relations with China, which will not be a major problem on the whole. It is worth noticing that after Yoshihide Suga takes office, Japan's autonomous defense capabilities will further improve. Japan is supposed to strengthen its independent defense capability and invest heavily in emerging defense fields. Therefore, it is necessary to pay close attention to trends in Japan on issues such as Taiwan question, the Diaoyu Islands, the South China Sea, and intermediate-range missile deployment.