The Economist Intelligence Unit’s managing director, Robin Bew; principal economist, China, and manager, Access China, Tom Rafferty; and China account manager, James Hu, paid a visit to Peking University’s Institute of Area Studies (PKUIAS) on November 28. They were hosted by PKUIAS’s director, Qian Chengdan; executive deputy director, Ning Qi; deputy directors Xia Hongwei, Wang Suolao and Zan Tao, and chief of the office, Li Yun, at No. 66 Yannanyuan.
The UK Parliament will vote on the Brexit deal on December 11, and its vote will decide the future of UK’s departure from the EU. Focusing on this hot topic, Prof. Qian Chengdan, Robin Bew and James Hu shared their views on Brexit and its ramifications for the UK if British Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan for Brexit receives the support of Parliament next month.
Mr. Bew opined that he doesn’t think the UK will benefit from Brexit either economically or politically. In terms of economy, the tariff-free access to EU market currently enjoyed by the UK will change after Brexit. And, geopolitically, although the UK is the fifth biggest economy in the world, most of its international influence has come from its participation in the EU. Therefore, the UK will find it more difficult to be effective in international affairs after leaving the EU.
Prof. Qian said that he believes Theresa May’s plan for Brexit will eventually be supported by Parliament, but he doesn’t think the British economy will suffer a big shock as a result of Brexit.
Mr. Bew also expressed his views on the current state of Sino-Russian relations. In answer to the question raised by Prof. Ning Qi about the prospects for Russia, Mr. Bew pointed out that Russia is an energy economy, while the energy economy is slowly running out oil, which in many places is difficult to extract. So, this very important part of Russian economy is likely to have less influence on and be less of a driver of its economic prospects. Other industrial sectors need to rise to replace the energy sector.
After Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered, Saudi Arabia has faced intense global criticism. Prof. Wang Suolao and Mr. Bew talked about the British government’s position on the situation. He said he believes Britain and most other countries will go through a long period—perhaps six months to one year—of being publicly cautious about engagement with Saudi Arabia. However, in the long-run, Britain’s relationship with Saudi Arabia will not be affected.
At the end of the meeting, Prof. Zan Tao discussed British public opinion on the impact of Brexit toward the UK–Turkey relationship with the scholars from The Economist Intelligence Unit. Tom Rafferty and Prof. Xia Hongwei gave their views on channels of possible cooperation between The Economist Intelligence Unit and PKUIAS in the future.
