The 35th seminar of the "Adventus Amicorum" series hosted by the Institute of Area Studies, Peking University (PKUIAS), was held on November 8, 2024. The keynote speaker for this seminar was Alexander Nikitin (Александр Никитин), a professor in the Political Sciences Department at MGIMO-University, director of the MGIMO Center for Euro-Atlantic Security of the Institute for International Studies, and an elected member of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences. His lecture, titled “The 2024 Presidential Elections in Russia and the United States,”offered in-depth insights into the topic. The seminar was moderated by Jin Ge, assistant director and associate editor at PKUIAS. Discussants included Duan Demin, director of the European Studies Center at Peking University and Fei Haiting, associate professor at the School of Government and a research fellow at the Center for Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian Studies at Peking University. Many students from different departments of the university attended the seminar.
Prof. Nikitin briefly introduced his academic journey and the contributions of the Russian Political Science Association (РАПН-ИЭСИ-ИНИОН) to the field of area studies. He then highlighted the central theme of the lecture: a comparative analysis of the 2024 presidential elections in the United States and Russia and their implications for the future international order.
Prof. Nikitin pointed out that reviewing the history of US–Russia relations since the Cold War was essential for analyzing the current situation. He noted that the majority of Soviet/Russian Arms Control treaties had been elaborated and concluded with Republican administrations. In particular, a series of agreements reached during the détente period following the Cuban Missile Crisis effectively prevented nuclear war and played a crucial role in stabilizing the world order. Prof. Nikitin argued that, based on historical experience, the Republican Party's preference for realpolitik was more conducive to advancing US–Russia bilateral relations; in contrast, the Democratic Party placed greater emphasis on values in conducting its foreign policy.
Prof. Nikitin then highlighted that the recently concluded US presidential election would have profound implications for the Ukraine crisis, US–Russia relations and global geopolitics. He suggested that if the Democratic Party had won, the US would likely have continued its current hardline policy toward Russia. Now that Donald Trump has been reelected President, limited cooperation between the US and Russia might resume in areas such as nuclear disarmament. However, despite Trump’s claims that he could end the Russia–Ukraine conflict within 24 hours, he is actually not capable of bringing the war to a swift conclusion.
Additionally, Prof. Nikitin provided an in-depth analysis of the current global security landscape, noting that the new generation of political leaders might underestimate the consequences of nuclear war. The multilateral arms control system established after the Cold War is gradually disintegrating, and nuclear deterrence is increasingly subject to uncontrollable factors. This makes the global security environment more complex and perilous.
Toward the end of the lecture, Prof. Nikitin discussed Russia’s electoral system and its uniqueness within the international context. He argued that although Russia had technically adopted many procedures of Western democratic elections, the level of political competition remained relatively low. This phenomenon reflects Russian society’s emphasis on stability and continuity. He further noted that Russia’s electoral system balanced the framework of a multi-party system with its unique political culture, showcasing a governance path distinct from that of Western countries.
During the discussion session, participants engaged in an in-depth exchange with Prof. Nikitin on the topics covered in the lecture. Duan Demin, drawing on his research experience, engaged Prof. Nikitin in a detailed discussion on NATO, Eurasianism, and Russia’s electoral system. Fei Haiting focused on the resurgence of isolationism and the intensification of great power competition. Prof. Nikitin responded to each of these discussions, contributing to a rich and thought-provoking exchange.
Finally, Jin Ge concluded the seminar with a summary of the discussions and expressed his hopes for sustained exchange and collaboration between Russian and Chinese scholars in future seminars and research initiatives.
