The 30th seminar of the “Adventus Amicorum” series hosted by the Institute of Area Studies, Peking University, was held online on October 10, 2024. The keynote speaker for this event was Monica Hakimi, the William S. Benecke Professor of Law at Columbia University Law School and co-Editor-in-Chief of the American Journal of International Law. Themed “The Decline in US Power and the Future of International Law,” the session was moderated by Associate Professor Chen Yifeng of Peking University’s Law School. Discussants included Prof. Zhang Xinjun of Tsinghua University’s Law School, Associate Professor Zhang Yongle of the Institute of Area Studies, Assistant Professor Liu Yang of Renmin University’s Law School, and Assistant Professor Chen Xiaohang of Peking University’s Law School. Nearly 200 students and faculty members attended.
Prof. Hakimi began her presentation based on her co-authored paper with Jacob Katz Cogan titled The Decline in US Dominance and the Future of International Law. She first outlined the contemporary background and theoretical questions underpinning the discussion. The decline of US global hegemony is now a recognized fact. However, the critical question remains: how will the power vacuum created by the waning of US dominance in international law be filled? To address this, it is necessary to critically examine the US-led international legal order and the relationship between international law and power. Many scholars in Europe and the US argue that the decline of American hegemony will allow international law to regain its independence and better fulfill its functions. However, Prof. Hakimi contends that, in the short term, the decline of US power will undermine the very power base that sustains the operation of international law, making it imperative to explore new forms of international legal operation and power structures in a multi-polar world.
Prof. Hakimi then introduced the theory of the independence of international law, which holds that international law is opposed to power and operates without being influenced or controlled by power. According to this theory, three outcomes are possible: (1) international law can effectively control power; (2) power can act irrespective of international law; or (3) international law can be corrupted by power. Prof. Hakimi critiqued all three outcomes, arguing that international law and power were collaborative and even symbiotic. In practice, international law and power often reinforce each other: power can sustain the operation of international law, and the exercise of power requires the legitimizing function of international law.
Prof. Hakimi further highlighted China as a major player in shaping the future international order. The key issue is whether the power vacuum arising from US–China competition can be filled by new powers with the ability and willingness to do so. She used the reform of the UN Security Council as an example, noting that even if the membership of the Security Council remained unchanged, US influence within the Council would gradually diminish. The operational efficiency of the Security Council may also decline unless new states step up to fill the power void. She further argued that the international community must find a basis for common interests to inject new vitality into international law. Prof. Hakimi acknowledged that this was not to overlook the historical issues brought about by US hegemony and that internal instability in the US during its decline could create new uncertainties for international law.
During the discussion, Zhang Yongle approached the topic from the perspective of colonialism and the global South/North divide, citing examples such as historical conflicts in Africa and the current situation in the Middle East, and pointed out the double standards in US practice in upholding sovereign equality. Liu Yang emphasized that in order to explore future trends in international law, it was necessary to clarify which international legal regimes would change and how the process of power transition would unfold. Chen Xiaohang argued that further research was needed into how the US had incorporated its national interests and exceptionalist claims into the universal demands of international law, providing a lens through which to understand the operational logic of international law. Zhang Xinjun, starting from Prof. Hakimi’s definition of power, added that the influence of soft power on international law should also be considered, emphasizing that the relationship between international law and power was multidimensional and multi-layered. Finally, Prof. Chen Yifeng pointed out that third-world countries faced the risk of being “doubly marginalized” in both the dimensions of power and international law. He also raised the question of how international law could overcome the labels distinguishing democratic and non-democratic regimes in order to become more inclusive and pluralistic.
Prof. Hakimi responded to each of the discussants’ comments and questions. She particularly emphasized that in the era of declining US hegemony, international law would face many unexpected and thorny challenges, and the traditional international legal order and rules would face renewed scrutiny. Having received her legal education at Yale University, Prof. Hakimi acknowledged that constructivism within the policy-oriented jurisprudence school had influenced her academic perspectives.
Chen Yifeng summarized the seminar as being a profound discussion that transcended positivist international law, focusing on the changing global landscape and the ethical principles and constructive elements of international order.
