The ninth lecture in the Master Salon series of Peking University’s Institute of Area Studies (PKUIAS), themed “Unprecedented Changes over the Century: The ‘Synchronous Resonance’ of Three Long Historical Cycles,” was held on June 27. The lecture was given by Prof. Gao Bai from the Department of Sociology, Duke University, and was moderated by Prof. Feng Kaidong, associate professor at PKU’s School of Government. The salon saw the participation of Prof. Zhai Kun and Prof. Zhang Yongle, both deputy directors of PKUIAS; Li Junran, faculty member at the Teaching Center for Writing & Communication, Tsinghua University; Sui Jigang, research fellow at the Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences; and Zhu Xiaoqi, lecturer at the School of International Studies of the, Renmin University of China.
Prof. Gao Bai began his lecture by pointing out that the themes of the three long cycles in recent history were the pendulum movement of globalization and the trend of anti-globalization, geopolitics in the cycle of hegemony change, and the revolution in science and technology. One hundred years ago, the “synchronous resonance” of the three long cycles of history led to the two world wars, the Great Depression of 1929–1933, and the Thucydides Trap. Currently, the three cycles are ‘co-resonating’ again, which limits the international and domestic environment for attracting investment at the most profound level.
As for the long historical cycle of the pendulum movement of globalization and the trend of counter-globalization, Prof. Gao Bai argued that globalization was not a linear historical process, but rather a pendulum movement, the two extremes of which being, on the one hand, the unleashing of market forces and, on the other, the protecting of society. The logic was that when market forces gained momentum, competition in the market would become more intense, which in turn would increase the number of losers in the competition. And when such groups of losers grew, their feedback into the building of democratic politics would be stronger. Therefore, in a very bad economic situation, this political synergy would push the mainstream public policy toward social protection, which would be reflected in the implementation of various types of income and employment protection policies, mainly trade protectionism, and the trend of anti-globalization.
The cycle of hegemonic turnover shows that hegemony is also cyclical. Throughout history, from the Netherlands to the UK to the U.S., after a country establishes its hegemony, it always takes the lead in the expansion of production and trade, and when a new international economic order is established, it will begin to greatly promote the development of productive forces. But when the development reaches a certain stage, due to the frantic pursuit of profits by international mobile capital, as well as all kinds of problems faced by the domestic economy and production, it will eventually lead to fiscal and financial expansion, which will eventually bring about a worldwide financial crisis. The hegemonic countries then will gradually lose their hegemonic status after a long period of consumption.
The cycle of scientific and technological revolution refers to the fact that all macro-historical phenomena and well-known concepts such as colonialism, imperialism, modern war and feminism can be attributed to the industrial revolution that took place in the 19th century. Prof. Gao Bai said that in the mode of production of modern capitalism since the 19th and 20th centuries, energy determines the relationship between man and nature, while machines determine the relationship between man and the tools of production. The 21st century technological revolution mainly concerns the two major technologies of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and new energy. AI has redefined for the first time in the history of mankind the relationship between man and the tools of production, while new energy has redefined for the first time the relationship between man and nature. This is the essence of the 21st century technological revolution, and it is predicted that these two technologies will reshape all industry during the course of this century.
As for the progress of anti-globalization, Prof. Gao Bai proposed three different indexes to measure it: protectionist tariffs, the emergence of trade blocs and trade embargoes. Moreover, in the context of de-globalization, the adjustment of supply chains and de-risking have become a consensus. He also pointed out that the current de-globalization issue has two main characteristics: first, the hegemonic countries suppress the emerging powers and use nationalism to explain the world’s problems; and second, the national response to the crisis begins to be ideologized, which mainly manifests itself in the ideologization of institutional confrontation.
Prof. Gao Bai concluded that the technological revolution has brought many positive impacts on social development. For example, artificial intelligence will completely instrumentalize skills, and people will learn to use all kinds of tools in the process of education, which will break the grass-roots structure and allow people to find more suitable positions in the society as well as all kinds of industries, thus realizing the democratization of the economy. However, it is also important to see the adverse effects of the technological revolution. Since AI will empower some workers while excluding large numbers of other workers from production, it is also necessary to pay attention to the impact on employment when a large number of machines enter production. If AI can be properly applied to areas such as rural revitalization, it will certainly be of great help to the development of the industry.
In the discussion session, Zhai Kun and Zhang Yongle exchanged views with Prof. Gao Bai on the development status of the three historical cycles and their impact on the global industrial chain as well as future development opportunities for China. Sui Jigang raised a question on the theoretical basis and perspectives for analyzing international political economy issues in the context of the new energy technology revolution. Prof. Gao Bai said that it is necessary to start from the research problem and then conduct a literature review to understand different perspectives and build up one’s own theoretical analysis framework. Li Junran and Zhu Xiaoqi expressed their views on China–US trade, the development of policies within the U.S. alliance system in the context of anti-globalization, and the attitudes of countries toward the US. Prof. Gao Bai said that whether it is about industrial policies or dealing with international political and economic relations, Great Power wisdom is required. He added that China’s development was not without legitimacy, and that the key to sustaining the development was to deal with the possible conflicts between countries.
The teachers and students in the audience also asked questions about geopolitics, economic restructuring in the competition of Great Powers, and the direction of US industrial policy. Prof. Gao Bai said that if China wants to participate in the social construction of the world order in the future, it needs a complete set of theories and must have the courage to put forward a set of solutions that can persuade its competitors.
