Former Chinese Ambassador to Germany Shi Mingde first briefly reviewed the global impact of COVID-19. He argued that the pandemic constituted the greatest crisis the world has ever faced since the Second World War. He maintained that the crisis catalyzed changes that are unprecedented in this century and accelerated the qualitative changes in the international situation and international power dynamics, thereby probably inducing a fundamental transformation in the international order. Although globalization is a trend that could not be reversed in the long run, it would very likely face obstacles in the foreseeable future as nationalism and unilateralism flourished. He suggested that we should be soberly aware of the current situation that many countries have already started to reconsider and accordingly adjust their foreign strategies in the course of coping with the pandemic and have begun to have another view of China. Therefore, he advised that we should sharpen our sense of opportunity while maintain bottom-line thinking and crisis awareness in order to take precautions and make plans in advance.

The world economy is now undergoing severe impact on an unprecedented level. According to the predictions of the IMF, the world’s economic growth has been hit by the most disastrous blow since the Great Depression during the 1930s and we may be facing a circumstance in which both developed and emerging economies fall into recession. Since the Chinese economy is inseparable from the world economy, China has to be vigilant about the repercussions of the potential temporary disconnection in the global industry chain and supply chain caused by the pandemic as well as that of the development of the anti-globalization trend. Take the German automobile industry, which relies on Chinese suppliers for most of its parts, as an example. At the beginning of the pandemic, German automobile companies were cut off from their supplies due to strict pandemic control measures taken by China; as the epicenter of the pandemic gradually shifted to Europe, however, Chinese suppliers were not able to receive parts from Germany because of the suspension of production by German automobile producers. These dual reasons brought great difficulties to the Chinese and German automobile industries. As the pandemic spread and the global economy continued to decline, numerous countries have implemented protectionist trade policies and have started to reflect on their “dependence” on China resulting from the industrial hollowing-out, and thus have been pushing hard for “economic independence” and “industrial sovereignty.” These games are not only manifested in the field of technology and 5G, but also obvious in the overall trade policy of various countries. For example, the German government this April amended its Foreign Trade and Payments Act for the third time in two years, tightening up the review process on permissions given to foreign capital to purchase German strategic and technical assets. It can be expected that similar acts and policies will bring huge uncertainty to China–Europe and China–Germany cooperation in trade and technology.

Ambassador Shi Mingde also provided information on pandemic prevention in Europe. The coronavirus pandemic, the severest public health crisis Europe has encountered in almost a century, has exacerbated the internal structural problems and conflicts in Europe that already existed before the pandemic struck, such as Brexit, political schisms within each country, fragmentation of political parties, the financial and debt crisis, social inequality, and the growing centrifugal forces in Eastern European countries. First, European countries acted on their own when the pandemic first struck the continent and scrambled to shut down borders and restrict the export of medical supplies. The lack of coordination and the beggar-thy-neighbor behaviors of the EU countries gravely injured the international image of the EU and further strengthened the public’s distrust toward it. Although the situation turned for the better after the new EU president, Ursula von der Leyen, publicly apologized to Italy, the damage had already been made and the repercussions from that were long-lasting. Second, the European economy was badly hit. The EU estimates that its annual GDP will have shrunk 7.8 percent with a loss over one trillion euros. The EU has put forward an economic aid plan worth a total of 280 million euros and initiated the article on national debt relief of the Stability and Growth Pact which allows member countries’ annual debt to surpass the limit of 6 percent of GDP and total debt to surpass 60 percent of GDP. Nevertheless, countries in the eurozone still have not reached any agreement concerning the coronavirus bond, which is opposed by economies with better financial conditions, such as Germany and the Netherlands, for fear of having to share the debt after issuing the bond. Third, the rift between the US and Europe has grown larger, and the two have drifted further apart. In a word, the pandemic has, on the one hand, highlighted the shortcomings of the EU as manifested in its weakness and fragmentation, and, on the other hand, strengthened the EU’s awareness of unexpected hardships and increased its sense of solidarity and autonomy. The conflicts and divergence between Europe and the US have grown larger, but other areas of consensus still outweigh the differences between them, and the two parties are far from parting ways. We should be aware of both the aspects that have undergone changes and those that have remained unchanged, he said.  

In his presentation, Ambassador Shi Mingde paid special attention to the analysis of Germany’s pandemic prevention measures and the pandemic’s possible impact on China–Germany relations. Germany recorded its first case of coronavirus on January 27 and experienced a large-scale outbreak during the carnival. By April 13, the total case numbers in Germany had surpassed 120,000, but the number of dead was fewer than 3,000, far lower than that of other European countries. Almost half of the patients in Germany recovered, and only 58 percent of the country’s ICUs were occupied, thus Germany was still able to receive critically-ill patients transferred from France and Italy. Germany’s pandemic prevention measures contributed hugely to this positive outcome. The country has been striving to find a way of coping with the pandemic that lies between that of the US and that of China and one that best suits the reality in Germany, a way that could slow down the spread of the pandemic as much as possible and avoid laying unbearable pressure on medical resources while minimizing the disturbance in society’s normal life and production. Its effects have been evident. First of all, Germany is equipped with a fairly sophisticated healthcare system and enjoys a per capita allocation of medical devices that ranks among the top of the world: the country has a total of more than 28,000 Intensive Care Unit beds, several times what France, Italy, or the UK possess, its respirators per capita are more than ten times greater than that of some other European countries. Its abundant medical resources provide a solid material foundation for combating the pandemic. Second, Germany has a rather remarkable testing capability and enjoys a quite even geographical distribution of labs, which allows testing to be available throughout the country, and thereby avoid to a great extent regional outbreaks resulting from delayed testing. Third, Germany follows treat and cure guidelines that prioritize distribution and treating critical patients and lays specific emphasis on the protection of the elderly and other vulnerable groups. Fourth, the German government dealt with the pandemic in a prompt and generally appropriate manner. Germany hasn’t loosened up restrictions in haste under the current stable circumstances regarding the pandemic; rather, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced after consulting with the 16 federal states on the same day this workshop took place that the lockdown and other restrictive measures would be extended until May 3, and no large-scale activities could be held before August 31. As the pandemic curve further flattens, the German government’s measures will witness further gradual changes, he said.

Ambassador Shi Mingde pointed out that Germany and China have cooperated well since the pandemic broke out. The leaders of the two countries talked over the telephone and emphasized the importance of strengthening their bilateral cooperation. China and Germany also promptly provided medical supplies to each other. Ambassador Shi then shed light on China–Germany and China–EU relations as they have been influenced by the pandemic. As the pandemic broke out and spread, German and European political circles have realized that, in an ever-globalizing world, no country would be able to remain free of the pandemic. All countries are closely linked to one another, and are all part of a community of shared future for mankind. At the same time, Germany has also realized that its dependence on China for medical supplies and medicine exceeded what was desirable. Germany, and even the whole of Europe, has therefore initiated strategic adjustment and proposed to ensure “economic independence” and “industrial sovereignty.” The German government has once again amended regulations on foreign investment review and solidified the protection of strategic properties and technologies. It has explicitly stated that the production of strategic medical supplies, such as masks and respirators, must be localized, and that the government will finance the reconstruction of the industry. Per Ambassador Shi, these changes will bring about new challenges to China–Germany and China–Europe relations in the post-pandemic era; these challenges, however, may also constitute opportunities. Common interests between China and Germany or those between China and Europe are much greater than the differences between them. China should continue adhering to the concept of building a community of shared future for mankind, clearly state its wish to carry out win-win cooperation, adhere to multilateralism and strengthen cooperation. In the meantime, China should strengthen its sense of crisis and that of potential danger and spare no effort to avoid any damage to China–Germany and China–Europe relations, especially in preventing the decoupling the industrial and supply chains of both sides. Ambassador Shi stressed that China’s priority and fundamental task is to maintain economic growth, social stability, and improvements in living standards. To manage China’s own affairs well and to consolidate its hard-earned achievements in combating the pandemic is to contribute to the world. China needs to promote closer cooperation and enhance solidarity in the international society and expand its circle of friends as much as possible so as to solidify the foundations of the community of shared future for mankind.

Ambassador Shi’s speech was well received by the teaching staff and students who attended the workshop. Prof. Huang Liaoyu, director of the Department of German Language and Literature in the School of Foreign Languages of Peking University and the director of the German Studies Center at Peking University, suggested that we could analyze Germany’s “re-evaluation” of China in recent years through examining German political circle’s and German media’s opinion on the politicization of the pandemic. He also highlighted that the measures taken by Germany in face of the pandemic couple “strength and gentleness” in that they stress civil duty and participation alongside strict regulations, and, from this, we could have an idea of the German national character. Prof. Zheng Zhijie, director of the Department of Global Health in the School of Public Health of Peking University and Boya Chair Professor, shared his analysis focusing on the importance of global public health and interdisciplinary cooperation. He argued that the governance of global public health must be built on relevant foreign policies, and global health diplomacy is one of the approaches to it. China has made substantial contributions to the global battle against the pandemic, and should take on more responsibility as an international health governance actor in organizations such as the World Health Organization so as to get more engaged in the processes of global health cooperation, setting standards, and weighing rules, he said. Emeritus Professor Dong Xiaoying of the Guanghua School of Management of Peking University proposed from the perspective of management that the state should focus on building its economic resilience as the economic downturn induced by the pandemic becomes inevitable. Despite this, the pandemic has provided chances and opportunities for economic transformation, especially toward informationization. Therefore, China has been promoting two crucial strategies, namely the development of new infrastructure represented by 5G technology and information superhighway, and the incorporation of technology and elements relevant to emergency response into the key elements of economic development. As for future development trends, it is inevitable that industrial chains will decouple from supply chains; therefore, we should strengthen international cooperation on the one hand to increase the cost of that decoupling, and promote economic transformation and the technologization of industrial economy on the other hand to convert this predicament into opportunity, he said.

At the end of the workshop, Ambassador Shi Mingde and the other participating experts answered questions from the audience and discussed the topics further.