Central Asia has been the hub of Eurasia since ancient times, serving as a place where Eastern and Western civilizations integrate. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the five Central Asian countries experienced social unrest caused by the political and economic transformation and endured the challenges brought by extremist thought and terrorist movements. In the process of nation-state building over the past three decades, these countries have gradually rebuilt their political and economic systems, actively shaped their national cultures, and worked hard to explore development paths and models suitable for their countries. The five countries have sought to dock with China’s “Belt and Road” initiative to varying degrees and in different fields. At the same time, the security challenges facing the countries of Central Asia remain severe. The return of extremism and the generation and spreading of extremist ideas have become potential threats in the critical period of social transformation in Central Asian countries.

The Institute of Area Studies, Peking University (PKUIAS), held the 25th Broadyard Workshop in the Yingjie Exchange Center on October 17, 2019. Focusing on the theme of “Central Asia’s Security and Development in the New Period,” the workshop brought together about 10 scholars and experts from institutes and universities, including Peking University, Tsinghua University, Lanzhou University, Xinjiang University, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), and China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, to review the situation in Central Asian countries in recent years and analyze the opportunities and challenges faced by them, with the goal of providing a reference for the future development of relations between China and Central Asian countries.

Prof. Yang Shu from Lanzhou University analyzed the basic characteristics and influence of geopolitics in Central Asian countries. He opined that the basis of geopolitics is location, area, population, and resources, which affect the country’s foreign policy in different ways. Since independence, the five Central Asian countries have faced different opportunities and challenges due to their different geopolitical status. For example, the core of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy is Russia. Uzbekistan is located in the center of Central Asia and adjacent to the other four countries, which greatly affects Central Asia’s regional cooperation; its foreign relations are likely to focus on China. Kyrgyzstan’s geopolitical environment is very poor; Russia was its diplomatic focus historically, but democratization has seriously interfered with its choice. Tajikistan’s biggest external threat comes from Afghanistan, which makes it rely on Russia to ensure its security; considering Russia is not able to provide economic help, Tajikistan relies on Russia for security but on China for its economy. Turkmenistan has relatively advantageous geopolitical conditions; being able to enter Europe through the Caspian Sea, its status as a permanently neutral country has benefited it both in terms of security and economy. Seen from the current situation, the US is not likely to get deeply involved in Central Asian affairs, and Russia’s influence is slowly declining. China’s opportunities mainly lie in economy butit should objectively view the opportunities brought about by the Silk Road Economic Belt. Meanwhile, the security threat is not likely to increase for some time.

Sun Zhuangzhi, director of the Institute of Russian, Eastern European & Central Asian Studies, CASS, said in his presentation that the five Central Asian countries have worked hard to maintain their domestic political stability and economic development against the background of the increasingly complicated international and regional environment, and have achieved considerable success. There has been no major adjustment in the internal and external policies of the five countries; however, due to economic fluctuations and the inequitable distribution of wealth, domestic social contradictions are acute and people’s livelihood issues are prominent. Therefore, domestically, the countries mainly seek economic development, improvement of people’s livelihood, and increasing employment; in terms of foreign affairs, they aim to overcome the pressure brought about by the deterioration of the international economic environment, hoping to avoid being involved into the trade conflicts among the big powers and striving for bigger wiggle room. China’s strategic partnership with the Central Asian countries has been further strengthened, with China’s influence in Central Asia steadily expanding. The five Central Asian countries speak highly of the Belt and Road initiative proposed by Chinese leaders, hoping to take this opportunity to enhance their international status and develop their economies. Attaching importance to strategic docking with the Belt and Road, they have reached a series of new agreements with China. However, due to rapid changes in the international and regional situations, especially the adjustment of domestic and foreign policies in the Central Asian countries in the context of the Sino–US trade war, China’s interest in Central Asia will inevitably be affected.

The presentation by Prof. Pan Zhiping from Xinjiang University focused on the security situation in Central Asia in the new period. He pointed out that the current threats posed to the security of Central Asia include political turmoil in some countries, the resurgence of pan-Turkism, challenges of de-extremization, border issues between countries and the crisis of Aral Sea. If the above problems cannot be effectively and reasonably dealt with, the stability of Central Asia will be seriously affected. He expressed his belief that, with regard to the new geopolitical situation in Central Asia, the US’s attitude has changed from being worried to being entangled, that is, from previously emphasizing so-called “democracy and freedom” in the region and supporting the “color revolution” to currently unswervingly promoting the “China threat theory” in the region, hoping to safeguard its regional interests in this way. Out of the need to safeguard its national interest, China should have a correct understanding of the current changes in the situation in Central Asia and the shift in US policy, strengthen relevant regional research, and reasonably respond to new challenges.

Prof. Wu Dahui from Tsinghua University analyzed three perspectives on understanding the new “China threat” theory in Central Asia. He opined that, unlike the traditional “China threat theory” currently popular in the West, which emphasizes China’s “population expansion,”“economic aggression,”“military intimidation” and “ideological penetration” in the past two years, a new “China threat” theory has begun to emerge in Central Asia, which emphasizes China’s “threat of corruption,”“threat of debt,” and “racial threat.” He opined that the new “China threat” theory will continue to have new variants and cannot be completely eliminated. China should take note of it but does not have to be too concerned about it. For Chinese companies to “go global,” the best protection of their overseas interests is to abide by the local laws and regulations. Regardless of whether the market in the host country is mature or not, Chinese companies should engage in economic activities in accordance with market principles. In countries with underdeveloped economies and volatile political transitions, major infrastructure projects need to be treated prudently. The role of the Chinese government is to guide the companies rather than make decisions. And when it comes to dealing with cross-border ethnic issues, China must have an international perspective and diplomacy awareness.

Su Chang, a research fellow at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European & Central Asian Studies, CASS, analyzed the evolution of Islamic radicalism in Central Asia by analyzing the historical conditions for the generation of Islamic radicalism, elements of change, and the relationship with Islamic extremism. She opined that Islamic radicalism in Central Asia is essentially a political category. It emerged and evolved in the form of a social trend of thought, and formed a social movement imbued with political awareness, aiming to participate in national politics in a radical way and seeking to establish a regime in Central Asia with Islamic values as the main idea of state governance. There are both similarities and differences between Islamic radicalism in Central Asia and Islamic extremism in Central Asia. Islamic extremism in Central Asia was born and developed under the huge influence of Islamic radicalism. Today, the two still coexist and interact.

Xu Tao, a research fellow at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, pointed out that Central Asian countries have been independent for almost three decades. Some of the variables that have determined and influenced the development of the regional situation have undergone significant changes, and some have been slowly changing. By observing the successes and failures of the transformation of Central Asian countries in recent years, we can see that there are two opposing forces that restrict the development of the regional situation. On the one hand, the basic geopolitical situation remains unchanged, diversified influence of large foreign big powers remains unchanged, and the political and cultural ecology of the indigenous traditional tribes remains unchanged. On the other hand, the identity of the nation-state subject has changed, the way and path of the influence from the great powers have changed, and the status and relationship between the countries of the region have changed. In the future, the development of the countries in Central Asia will be entangled by these basic internal and external influences. Observing the fluctuations and strengths of these main variables, setting relatively reasonable investigation indicators, and doing long-term follow-up analysis will help to understand the geopolitical processes that may occur in Central Asia nowadays and in the future.

Prof. Chang Chun from the School of Public Health, PKU, focused on opportunities and challenges for medical and health cooperation under the “Belt and Road” framework. He pointed out that, on the one hand, the “Belt and Road” countries face some common health problems due to geography and socio-economic development. Solving these problems will require the countries to work together to control the epidemic of infectious diseases, take chronic disease prevention and control into consideration in the economy and trade, and promote the concept of health in cultural exchanges. On the other hand, socio-economic development has prompted people’s awareness of health, and their demand for healthcare has increased significantly. In addition, countries have their own successful experiences and advantages in health governance, and need to communicate and learn from each other based on the “Belt and Road” cooperation framework. At the same time, the development of the Internet and new technologies has brought more opportunities for regional health cooperation. Under the framework of the “Belt and Road” cooperation, health cooperation also faces some challenges, even while it is advancing. China and relevant countries need to work together to come up with more solutions to solve problems such as how to reflect the “integration of health into all policies” in multi-lateral and unilateral cooperation as well as conceptualize health cooperation as an important component part of social development; how to further build civil health cooperation and exchange platforms on the basis of government-level cooperation as well as promote the health and well-being of people ofall countries; and how to overcome language and cultural obstacles so that health cooperation can also tell Chinese stories well and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.

Zhang Ning, a research fellow of the Institute of Russian, Eastern European & Central Asian Studies, CASS, introduced the security situation in Tajikistan. Tajikistan, the only non-Turkish-speaking country in Central Asia, borders with Afghanistan. It is China’s main partner for maintaining stability in the west and opposing pan-Turkism and Islamic extremism. He opined that, at present, Tajikistan is unlikely to have a war with its neighboring countries or suffer external military strikes. The security issues facing the country are mainly non-traditional security, including the threat of terrorism and extremist forces and transnational organized criminal activities such as smuggling and drug trafficking. The main factors for these are the economic downturn, the increase in the number of Tajik citizens due to changes in the Middle East situation, the security situation in northern Afghanistan becoming more severe, and the domestic political struggle in Tajikistan becoming intensified. At present, Tajikistan’s main task is to implement the “National Anti-Extremism and Terrorism Strategy for 2016–2020,”passed in November 2016, including four major measures: improving laws, accelerating social and economic development, raising national awareness, and strengthening international cooperation.

Shi Yue, an assistant professor at PKU’s School of Foreign Languages, introduced the construction of the Astana International Financial Center (AIFC) and analyzed the economic and trade cooperation between China and Kazakhstan. He explained that the AIFC officially started operating in 2018, and is one of the most important projects in Kazakhstan’s economic and financial reforms. It is also a major measure for Kazakhstan to attract foreign investment and develop its economy in the new period. The center aims to develop innovative markets, such as finance, insurance, e-commerce and financial technology, and promote the docking of Kazakhstan’s financial markets with international markets. He said that Kazakhstan, as a new permanent strategic partner of China, needs domestic scholars to pay close attention to the development of the center, actively explore the potential value of the center as a platform for the implementation of China–Kazakhstan capacity cooperation investment projects and the promotion of internationalization of the RMB, and actively plan for how to combine the future development path of the center with the political, economic and trade cooperation between China and Kazakhstan in order to lay the foundation for the future development of the two countries.

At the workshop, the participating experts also exchanged ideas with audience members about Central Asian history, ethnic relations, and “Belt and Road” cooperation.