Afghanistan and China are close neighbors. Afghanistan is regarded as the heart of Asia and is an important part of the ancient Silk Road, with a very important geostrategic value. The Afghan war has lasted for 40 years, which has made it the home of several transnational terrorist forces. The long-term competition among world powers in Afghanistan has complicated its domestic political and social relations. There was a turning point in 2020. On February 29, 2020 the Taliban and the US reached a peace agreement, and on September 12, the Afghan internal reconciliation process was officially launched. In this context, relevant experts and scholars were invited to participate in this workshop to review the history of political reconciliation in Afghanistan, analyze current major issues, and look forward to the prospects for peace.
Regarding the current situation in Afghanistan, the participants believed that the change of American attitude was the key driver of the US-Taliban agreement. The reasons for the change of attitude are as follows: adjustment of national security strategies, exhaustion caused by long-term war, the high cost of troops, and so on. The US adjusted its strategy to Afghanistan is for its own interests, not for peace in Afghanistan. At present, the reconciliation process among Afghans has begun, but the negotiations have not yet officially started, and the negotiation procedures are still being discussed. There are serious differences between the Taliban and the Kabul government. There are two key points of contention. First, the Taliban advocates the establishment of Shariah rule based on the Hanafi school, and the Afghan government objects to this in the name of "inclusive peace." Second, the Taliban claim that the US-Taliban agreement is the basis for intra-Afghan reconciliation, but the Kabul government does not agree.
Experts believe that the Afghan government's position amid the current political reconciliation is very embarrassing. The main problem facing the government itself is a fierce factional struggle and severe corruption. The future stability and development of Afghanistan require distinguished leaders, effective government administration, and strong military and police forces, as well as the development of the economy, culture and education. Afghan political and cultural conditions determine that it will not completely rely on any country in international relations, but will try to maintain its neutrality and independence. Afghan issue has never been simple. Most of its problems are caused by foreign countries, and solutions also require foreign help.
Regarding the future of the situation in Afghanistan, the participants believe that, first of all, if Trump is re-elected, the withdrawal of US troops will be a foregone conclusion. The US will not leave Afghanistan. But it is not interested in the specific details of the future political system of Afghanistan. It only hopes that the future Afghan government can cooperate with the implementation of US strategy. There are many difficulties impeding reconciliation among the Afghan people. The solution is to find a power distribution plan accepted by all parties, with the international community continuing to provide support and assistance. Second, peace talks are better than war, but peace talks are not yet true peace. The current peace talks may not reach an agreement. Even if a peace agreement is reached, it does not mean that peace can be achieved. Since 2019, the ISKP and Al-Qaida have reorganized and their strength has grown significantly. Third, the friendly relations between China and Afghanistan should be further developed, and people-to-people exchanges and commercial exchanges should be promoted. Participants proposed that the Chinese media should help Afghanistan build a positive image in the international community and facilitate peace in Afghanistan. The US and regional powers have their own interests in Afghanistan. Attention must be paid to the negative effects of the US.
